Moody's Positive Outlook Confirms Tinubu's Economic Reform Impact, Says FG

Nigeria's Federal Government has welcomed the recent adjustment of the nation's sovereign credit outlook by Moody’s Ratings, shifting it from 'stable' to 'positive'. This move, according to authorities, serves as an independent affirmation of the economic overhauls initiated by President Bola Tinubu's government. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, communicated this development via a press statement shared on his X social media account on Saturday.

Mr. Oyedele elaborated that this updated evaluation by the global rating firm acknowledges the significant effect of the policy changes enacted by the administration within the last three years. These include critical steps such as ending the petrol subsidy, implementing changes to the foreign exchange rate system, and comprehensive tax reforms. He was quoted saying, “Moody’s positive outlook is an important external validation of the difficult but necessary reforms this administration has implemented, from removing a costly and inequitable fuel subsidy to unifying the exchange rate, and the landmark tax reforms.”

The Minister further highlighted that these ongoing reforms are progressively re-establishing fundamental macroeconomic stability. He pointed to indicators like a stronger position in foreign reserves, a more resilient external financial standing, a slowdown in inflation rates, and enhanced effectiveness of monetary policy mechanisms. Mr. Oyedele also revealed that the government's ambition in the medium term is to steer Nigeria towards achieving an investment-grade credit rating.

However, Mr. Oyedele cautioned that attaining this investment-grade status would necessitate persistent progress across several areas, including bolstering the nation's external financial standing, increasing internal revenue generation, optimizing government expenditure, and ensuring the country's debt remains manageable. He stated, “Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade. That will require us to sustain the external gains Moody’s has recognised, while making faster progress on domestic revenue mobilisation, spending efficiency, and debt affordability.”

He emphasized that the administration's pursuit of an enhanced sovereign rating is not an end in itself, but rather a strategic effort to foster an environment that reduces the cost of capital for the country, draws in private sector investments, and ultimately elevates the prosperity of Nigerians. The Minister's remarks followed Moody’s announcement of its revised outlook for Nigeria to 'positive', simultaneously confirming the nation's long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings at B3.

Moody’s attributed this upgraded outlook to several factors, including Nigeria’s strengthened external financial position, a notable increase in foreign exchange reserves, better operational efficiency within the foreign exchange market, and a more impactful transmission of monetary policy. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, cited by the Federal Ministry of Finance, indicates that Nigeria’s current account surplus is expected to expand to approximately 6.1 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2026. Furthermore, gross external reserves reportedly climbed to $53.30 billion as of August 26.

The rating agency further highlighted a more robust economic growth than initially anticipated, with real GDP growth forecast to hit four percent in 2025, surpassing an earlier estimate of around three percent. The Ministry also noted a moderation in headline inflation, which decreased to 15.4 percent in July 2026, a significant drop from 25.3 percent recorded in the same period the previous year.

Mr. Oyedele reiterated the government’s commitment to maintaining the reforms that are foundational to the improving credit standing. This includes focused endeavors to boost domestic revenue collection and fortify public debt management strategies. Among the other key priorities outlined by the Ministry are ensuring a disciplined and transparent foreign exchange system, upholding fiscal prudence, and implementing structural reforms designed to foster non-oil sector growth and broaden the government’s revenue streams.

The Ministry further revealed that Moody’s has suggested the possibility of another rating upgrade for Nigeria, should the country sustain the positive trajectory in its external financial position or if revenue-generating reforms lead to a lasting increase in government earnings. This recent update marks yet another favorable evaluation of Nigeria’s reform agenda by prominent international financial bodies and rating agencies.

It is worth recalling that PUNCH Online previously reported S&P Global Ratings' decision in May 2026 to elevate Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating from B- to B, also attributing this to enhancements in the nation's external standing and economic reforms. The Federal Government views these recent assessments as evidence of increasing trust in the current trajectory of the Nigerian economy, even as it recognizes the ongoing necessity for more efforts to solidify public finances and alleviate borrowing costs.