Tuchel's England Plot to Neutralize Norway's World Cup Threat, Haaland

Many initially tagged Norway as an outside contender for the World Cup, yet their impressive run has far surpassed initial forecasts. After securing the second spot in Group I, ahead of Senegal, they eliminated Ivory Coast and Brazil, netting a remarkable 12 goals across five matches. Their next challenge is England, who must devise a strategy to contain a formidable Norwegian squad, spearheaded by their prolific striker, Erling Haaland. The critical questions for England's manager, Thomas Tuchel, are: What are Norway's key strengths, and what adjustments will he implement to guide his team into the World Cup semi-finals?

Norway exhibits a diverse attacking style under Stale Solbakken, capable of both maintaining possession and executing rapid counter-attacks, all stemming from their meticulous build-up play. From goal-kicks, goalkeeper Orjan Nyland's passing has been exceptionally effective. Norway's initial preference is to play short, often deploying a wide back-four formation with Nyland acting as an additional passing option, while two defensive midfielders offer central outlets. This deep numerical superiority often facilitates easier progression up the pitch. When short options are unavailable, Nyland's go-to strategy involves a long diagonal ball to Alexander Sorloth, a 6ft 5in target man positioned on the right wing. This tactic is a recurring feature of Norway's play. England's left-back, Nico O'Reilly, who stands at 6ft 4in, will need to be particularly vigilant, though his stature suggests a more balanced contest against Sorloth than previous opponents have faced.

Disrupting Norway's varied build-up presents several tactical choices, each with its own compromises. The most straightforward approach is a full man-to-man press across the field. This tactic aims to negate Norway's numerical advantage in their own half, with the expectation that if Nyland opts for a long pass to Sorloth, O'Reilly's physicality will be sufficient to win the aerial duel. However, the drawback of this aggressive press is the risk of leaving one defender isolated against Erling Haaland in open space through the middle. Consequently, most managers would likely prefer to retain an extra defender at the back, ensuring at least two players are positioned to manage Haaland.

England faces a dilemma regarding their pressing strategy, especially given Norway's goalkeeper involvement in build-up, which effectively gives them two extra players. One option for England is to press with one fewer player than Norway’s defensive setup. Alternatively, they could adopt a deeper defensive line, focusing on blocking passing lanes. This second approach, however, comes with its own set of issues. Firstly, it could be perceived as overly cautious, contrasting with the proactive, front-footed style that Tuchel has cultivated for his England squad. Secondly, as observed in their match against Brazil, Norway is adept at prolonged periods of possession, using it to dictate tempo, conserve energy, defend with the ball, and ultimately frustrate their adversaries. Martin Odegaard plays a pivotal role in this, frequently dropping deep to orchestrate play with short passes, making it exceedingly difficult for opponents to dispossess Norway once they have established control. This seemingly passive strategy is, in fact, a sophisticated form of game management.

Brazil offered some insightful tactics when Norway initiated their build-up from Nyland. Brazilian players were observed making curved runs to cordon off one flank of the pitch, often compelling the goalkeeper to distribute the ball to his left. Wingers were strategically positioned to apply immediate pressure on Norway’s full-backs, while the two central attackers were prepared to engage either the holding midfielder or the unassigned centre-back. While Brazil did not consistently employ a full man-to-man press, they effectively cut off one side of the pitch at times, enabling them to press with fewer players. This involved applying man-to-man pressure on easily accessible players, while allowing less accessible players to remain free.

Even when Nyland was compelled to use his less dominant left foot, with limited short-passing options, his long passes consistently found Sorloth. Recognizing this, England might benefit from deliberately forcing Norway into these longer passes from Nyland's weaker side – despite its quality – while simultaneously preparing to swarm the landing zone and reclaim possession. Typically, England defends with a front two, which would leave them outnumbered against Norway's three central players in their build-up phase, a scenario similar to their match against DR Congo. However, by pushing a midfielder higher up the pitch, perhaps Declan Rice, England could engineer more chaotic situations that, though unpredictable, might increase their chances of imposing their preferred style of play.

To effectively neutralize Erling Haaland, teams generally have two main approaches: either cut off his supply lines or directly confront the striker himself, with the latter often proving significantly more challenging. When Norway advances the ball high up the pitch, their offensive strategy heavily relies on wide units and intricate rotations, a characteristic also seen in Thomas Tuchel's England. Antonio Nusa and Andreas Schjelderup, operating from the left wing, have been instrumental in providing service to Haaland. Space for them typically materializes following extended underlapping runs made by left-back David Moller Wolfe.

These underlapping runs by Moller Wolfe serve a dual purpose: if tracked, they draw opposition midfielders deeper, thereby creating central space for wingers to exploit by cutting inside. A frequent method of goal creation for Norway involves deep, in-swinging crosses directed towards the back post. Such runs to the back post represent one of Haaland's primary scoring avenues, alongside through balls delivered from the left and cut-backs against retreating defenses – making the concession of these crosses highly undesirable for opponents. Should Marc Guehi feature in the starting lineup, he might recall an instance in 2024 where, playing for Crystal Palace against Manchester City, Matheus Nunes delivered a similar cross, which Haaland converted with a header after peeling away from the England defender. In that particular match, Guehi and Palace could have benefited from a strategy of swarming Haaland, one of the few tactics proven to diminish his impact. Following a 1-1 draw against West Ham last season, former Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola famously remarked: "Do you know how many central defenders were around [Haaland] today? 200 million. Do you know how many holding midfielders? It is the most difficult position on the planet." On that occasion, West Ham deployed three central defenders and a defensive midfielder in close proximity to the Norwegian striker, often employing man-marking. The goal Haaland scored against Crystal Palace in 2024 exemplifies the precise situation Norway will aim to recreate against England and Marc Guehi.

Preventing these critical back-post crosses could be achieved by either doubling up in wide areas or deploying more adept one-on-one defenders. However, the former approach carries the risk of leaving the onrushing full-back, Moller Wolfe, unmarked, allowing him to deliver a cross himself. Indeed, if Moller Wolfe's underlapping run goes untracked, he can receive the ball in space and cut it back into the danger area.