Dangote Refinery Plans 1.4 Million BPD Expansion by 2029, Prioritizes Small IPO Investors

Aliko Dangote, the President and Chief Executive of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, announced on Monday that the facility's refining capacity is set to increase from its current 500,000 barrels per day to an impressive 1.4 million barrels per day by early 2029. Dangote also extended assurances to all Nigerians, including those with small or low incomes, that they would be accommodated in the refinery's ongoing Initial Public Offering (IPO), promising that their investments would yield returns in US dollars.

This disclosure was made virtually by Dangote during the final IPO roadshow, themed “Back to Where It All Began,” an event organized by the Financial Derivatives Company for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Port Harcourt, Rivers State. Beyond crude oil refining, Dangote projected substantial growth in the refinery's petrochemical sector, anticipating the production of at least 2.5 million tonnes of polyolefin and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkylbenzene, which he hailed as significant advancements for Africa's industrial development. He stated, “By 2029 beginning, we will be at 1.4 million barrels per day. That is a total of 10 per cent of America’s total refining capacity. We will be at 2.5 million tonnes of polyolefin, which is the largest ever in African history.”

Addressing concerns regarding reports of the IPO being oversubscribed and the limited share offering, Dangote reassured potential investors that smaller subscribers would receive priority. “Most of the smaller people who are bidding for 50,000 shares and below will definitely be sure that we accommodate all of them,” he affirmed. He defended the N525 per share offer price, describing it as highly attractive and expressing strong confidence in the refinery’s financial prospects. He remarked, “I think it’s an extremely very, very good price,” suggesting that the company’s performance could surpass its projected full-year earnings and characterizing the shares as a promising long-term investment. Dangote further hinted that investors could potentially more than double their capital within two and a half years.

In his keynote address, Bismarck Rewane, the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, encouraged Nigerians to view the IPO as a unique chance to transition from mere consumers to vital investors in critical national infrastructure. Rewane posited that the refinery’s public listing could considerably expand the Nigerian capital market, projecting that the market capitalization might exceed N220 trillion post-listing. He highlighted it as Africa's largest IPO, noting, “This is an IPO in which three countries, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, are getting their citizens to invest in Africa.” Rewane also drew parallels to global events, stating, “Today, Donald Trump is talking about diesel. Diesel comes out of the refinery. Diesel is determining what happens in the 19 days from the end of the inter-election. The price of diesel is going to determine the outcome of the largest economy in the world. So hold on to what you have. Make that transition from being a citizen to becoming a citizen plus an investor. And make that transition from being a citizen plus investor to becoming an African investor, where the economy of steel and the benefits will improve to all of us here.”

Similarly, Dr. Muda Yusuf, an economist and Founder/CEO of the Promotion of Private Enterprise, served as the second keynote speaker. He emphasized that the investment would bolster Nigeria’s economic foundations through industrialization, job creation, reduced reliance on imported petroleum products, and enhanced foreign exchange stability. Yusuf noted that the refinery's impact extends beyond fuel production to various sectors like petrochemicals, packaging, plastics, and other industries reliant on locally processed raw materials. He added that the IPO would foster greater public participation in the capital market and promote broader ownership of strategic industrial assets. “So this particular investment has come to strengthen the macroeconomic fundamentals of the Nigerian economy. In other words, strengthen the foundation on which the economy stands. So we are looking at the different dimensions of impacts, current and potential impacts on the Nigerian economy of this refinery”, Yusuf concluded.

Special guest of honour, Paul Usoro, SAN, concluded the event by urging residents of the South-South region and the wider Niger Delta to seize the opportunity presented by the share offering. Usoro, who confirmed his own investment in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, stressed the importance for Nigerians to hold a stake in an industry built around the country’s natural resources. He also reminisced about the long queues at petrol stations nationwide before the Dangote Refinery commenced operations, underscoring how domestic refining capacity could help alleviate such issues.