Fedorov, Zelenskyy's Ex-Minister, Warns Ukraine Risks Defeat, Urges Strategic Change

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's recently dismissed Defence Minister, has cautioned that the nation is seemingly on a path of gradual defeat in its conflict with Russia. Speaking to Reuters, Fedorov issued a stark warning that Kyiv has only a limited timeframe of a few months to implement crucial decisions that could reverse the course of the war. The young reformer, whose removal from office last month ignited weeks of public protests, asserted that Ukraine currently lacks a comprehensive strategy for achieving victory in the four-year-long conflict. He further highlighted that the country's inability to innovate, coupled with deep-seated corruption, patronage systems, and a deficit of political autonomy within government bodies, are significantly impeding its progress, according to his interview.

In a significant deviation from Kyiv's official stance, Fedorov declared, "I think that there's now a turning point which will determine our future trajectory, but it looks as though we're gradually, slowly losing." He maintained that Ukraine retains "every chance" to emerge victorious, but stressed the critical need for an immediate plan to bring the hostilities to a close.

Responding to Fedorov’s assertions, the Ukrainian presidential office countered that during his tenure at the ministry, he had expressed optimism regarding the war's execution, implying that only his personal circumstances had shifted. Meanwhile, the conflict continues on the ground, with Russia launching dozens of ballistic missiles monthly against Ukrainian industrial facilities and storage depots. Ukraine struggles to intercept these attacks due to dwindling supplies of defensive missiles. While Russia's territorial gains are slower than the previous year, its forces are still making gradual advances in the Donbas region. On the Ukrainian side, frontline infantry positions are thinly spread and often manned by conscripts lacking motivation.

For its part, Ukraine has intensified its drone and missile strikes deep within Russian territory, targeting crucial military production sites and inflicting substantial damage on oil refineries, leading to widespread fuel scarcity across Russia. Despite the ongoing challenges, a survey conducted in late July revealed that 82% of Ukrainians remain confident of victory, though most anticipate the conflict extending into 2027 or beyond. Fedorov, aged 35, was relieved of his duties six months after his appointment, following his attempts to introduce reforms in procurement and military mobilisation, which brought him into conflict with the established military hierarchy and political adversaries.

Just last week, Fedorov sent ripples through Ukraine's political landscape by becoming the first prominent political personality to call for wartime elections, citing a "systemic" governance crisis. In a fresh interview, he underscored the urgent necessity of advancing autonomous drones powered by artificial intelligence, affordable interceptor missiles to counter Russian aerial assaults, and establishing Ukraine's own ballistic missile initiative to decisively shift the conflict's momentum. While Ukrainian industries are already engaged in developing these advanced technologies, Fedorov stressed that a cohesive national strategy is paramount to fully leverage their impact once operational.

Fedorov articulated a strategic vision for a frontline fortified with electronic sensors for enemy detection, complemented by land and aerial drones, thereby significantly reducing the need for human personnel. He lamented, "Technologies exist already which could completely stop the Russians, but our absence of vision ... means we do not apply them." He further criticized the Ukrainian state for its squandered potential and operational inefficiency, claiming it functions at merely "5% effectiveness."

Fedorov asserted his pivotal role in orchestrating a drone offensive earlier this year, which targeted Russian fuel and military supply lines in occupied southern Ukraine, creating considerable difficulties for Moscow's forces at the front. He indicated that a limited window of opportunity, spanning a few months, remains to intensify this operation, aiming to isolate Russian-held Crimea before Russia can effectively counter Ukraine's strategies. This particular strike campaign was instrumental in altering perceptions regarding Ukraine's chances. Fedorov had previously stated that the campaign's efficacy was boosted by his choice to accelerate spending initially designated for the latter half of 2026.

However, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was once Fedorov's political mentor but is now his rival, stated over the weekend that the accelerated spending had created a substantial $27 billion deficit in the ministry's budget, a shortfall that donor-reliant Ukraine currently lacks the means to address. Fedorov vehemently denied knowledge of the source of Zelenskiy's figure, contending that his ministry had formulated a spending blueprint contingent on savings generated from new procurement bids and international assistance. Fedorov further alleged that upon his assumption of duty at the defence ministry, he discovered that various department heads had been appointed specifically to serve as lobbyists for Ukrainian defence contractors. He concluded, "By the end of the year, the budget deficit under our planning was around five billion dollars, and we knew where we would get it." He speculated, "Perhaps the plan changed and new projects emerged that require such a budget."