Nobel Peace Prize Jury Walks on Eggshells After Trump's Push

The committee responsible for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize is exercising extreme caution in selecting this year's recipient, primarily due to intense lobbying by Donald Trump for the accolade last year, experts confirm ahead of next week's announcement. The former US President's vocal demands for the prize placed unprecedented pressure on the five-member committee in the previous year. The situation became even more complicated when Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader and last year's laureate, subsequently presented her Nobel gold medal to Trump, asserting he deserved it after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

This year, the Nobel jury is keenly aware that the US President is once again closely observing their process. Kristian Berg Harpviken, the Nobel committee secretary, conveyed to AFP in an interview, "There’s always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee. So in one sense we’re very used to that."

According to various experts, the controversy surrounding Trump might influence the committee to select a laureate who garners widespread consensus when the name is revealed on October 9. Haakon Gjerlow, the acting director of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, told AFP, "After last year’s prize, maybe they’re seeking a less controversial situation this year." Gjerlow's top choice is a joint award to Save the Children and Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children’s rights advocate working to repatriate Ukrainian children illegally removed to Russia from occupied territories. This option could also appeal to Trump’s wife, Melania, who in 2025 wrote to Russian President Vladimir Putin advocating for the release of these Ukrainian children.

Other contenders favoured by Gjerlow include Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a vast volunteer network providing aid to individuals battling war and famine; the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), given that 2025 marked the deadliest year on record for media professionals; and even the International Space Station. Should the committee decide to directly challenge Trump, alternative choices could include Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories, the International Criminal Court, or Pope Leo XIV.

Meanwhile, the Nobel Prize for Literature, set to be announced on October 8, is also attracting significant attention. Speculation is rife within Sweden’s literary community, fueled by the fact that nominee lists and jury deliberations remain confidential for five decades. Following the honour bestowed upon Hungarian author Laszlo Krasznahorkai last year, the Swedish Academy, which selects the literature laureate, might this time opt for a female writer, potentially from Latin America, as suggested by literary critics surveyed by AFP.

Lina Kalmteg, a literary critic at Swedish public radio SR, noted, "In recent years, there has been a lot of talk about the ‘Latin American literary miracle’, this new generation that came after the male authors devoted to magical realism, like Gabriel Garcia Marquez." She added, "In this new wave, it’s women who are taking the lead, with writing often tinged with feminism, but also often quite dark and violent, punctuated by surreal touches." Argentine author Samanta Schweblin, 48, is considered an intriguing but perhaps surprising candidate in this category, though Kalmteg believes she might still be too young, as literature laureates are recognised for their entire body of work.

Other individuals mentioned in Nobel literature buzz include Antiguan-American author Jamaica Kincaid, known for her exploration of exile, identity, and colonial trauma, and Chinese writer Can Xue. Recurring 'usual suspects' are Australia’s Gerald Murnane and Alexis Wright, American author Thomas Pynchon, and Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza. The Academy has historically faced criticism for its perceived bias towards male, Western authors. A MeToo scandal in 2018 severely impacted the institution, leading to the replacement of over half its members. Since then, nearly every other laureate has been a woman.

The Nobel season kicks off on Monday with the medicine prize, which experts anticipate could recognise research into the GLP-1 appetite-regulating hormone, the science behind popular weight-loss medications like Ozempic. The physics prize will follow on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday, and the economics prize will conclude the awards week on October 13. Each Nobel Prize comprises a diploma, a gold medal, and a monetary award of approximately $1.2 million, which is shared among multiple laureates in a single discipline.